Concord, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

960
FXUS61 KGYX 071449
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1049 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure passing to our south will bring some
light rain and snow to southern locations through this morning.
Another system will then bring more widespread rain and snow to
the region on Tuesday with several inches of accumulation
possible across the north and mountains. Cooler but drier
conditions will then return for the middle of the week before
more unsettled weather returns towards the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045am Update...Wider push of precip has thinned as initial wave
pushes NE. This should leave a few rain showers in southern
zones for remainder of the morning into early afternoon. Did
trim PoPs later as deeper moisture wanes. This continues into
tonight, and the challenge will be if this is deep enough to
produce ice aloft and therefore snow. Otherwise, could see
patches of drizzle. Can`t rule out freezing drizzle as well, but
will be tough to bring issues considering moderate sfc temps
outside of elevated surfaces.

630 AM Update... Light snow and rain continues at this hour
over southern NH and extreme southwestern ME with mainly cloudy
skies elsewhere. Area webcams and sfc based weather stations
indicate temperatures remain warm enough to prevent much in the
way of snow accumulation on paved surfaces but a few higher
elevations of southern NH could receive up to an inch or so on
non-paved surfaces. Adjusted PoPs upward to categorical where
there is precipitation falling but otherwise made little change
to the forecast at this time.

Previously...
Northeast radar mosaic early this Monday morning shows
precipitation streaming from southwest to northeast over the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England with our area currently on
the northern periphery. This precipitation is in association
with a weak area of low pressure and stationary front that is
draped southeast of New England with increasing isentropic lift
positioned to the northwest over our area. So far a large
amount of these radar returns have been virga due to dry air
within the lower to middle levels (as seen on the KGYX 00Z RAOB)
but there are now beginning to be some webcam and ASOS reports
showing some light rain and snow flurries. Based on radar
trajectories and latest hi-res guidance, expect some light rain
and snow to become common over the southern two-thirds of the
area over the next couple of hours.

Little in the way of impacts are expected though as surface
temperatures are still well above freezing in most locations and
road temperatures are currently into the upper 30s/lower 40s. A
few slushy spots cannot be completely ruled out, especially over
the Monadnocks but overall any snow accumulation this morning
should be on non-paved surfaces. Later today precipitation will
likely become more showery in nature as the jet moves a little
further south and temperatures warm into the upper 30s/lower
40s in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight an upper level low and associated H5 trof axis will
swing southeastward from Quebec before crossing New England on
Tuesday while becoming negatively tilted as a weak sfc low
crosses at its base. This will allow for the continued chance
for scattered rain and snow showers tonight before a more
stratiform area of mostly snow arrives during the day on
Tuesday, especially over ME. Low temperatures tonight will be
into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

There remains uncertainty in how much snow accumulation we can
achieve during the day on Tuesday given the high April sun
angle and very marginal boundary layer temperatures. As a
result, generally lowered SLRs to below 10:1 during the day
outside of the higher terrain as even though it will likely be
snowing, accumulations will be limited. QPF is also light with
generally less than 1/4" expected. As a result, generally
expecting less than an inch of snow accumulation south of the
foothills with 1-4" across the foothills and then 3-5" over the
far north and mountains. Highs will range from the 30s to lower
40s from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term Update...01z NBM and other ensemble guidance is in
line with the going forecast so no changes have been made.

Previously...

500 MB trough will cross the region mid week, lifting
equatorward on Thu. This will provide a cool but fry period.
Forecast still holds that the N Atlantic block weakens and
shifts toward Europe later in the week which will allow that
close low to move into Greenland. This would be better news
because it would allow us to settle in ridging or at least zonal
flow next weekend, but 500 MB low closes off to out SW and
separates from the flow, and slowly tracks to our S next
weekend. For now it looks like the best chance of rain will be
focused around Fri night and Saturday, but this is a low
confidence forecast. It will also be warmer with a lower chance
for wintry precipitation.

Winds subside during Tue evening, and any SHSN in the N should
diminish around or shortly after midnight. Otherwise it will be
colder than its been recently with lows ranging from around 20
in the N to the upper 20s in the S. Wed will be mainly sunny, a
little breezy, and cool as sfc high slowly build in from the W.
Highs will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds drop0 off
quickly around sunset, and it will be mainly clear, so
decoupling is expected. Lows will be a little lower than Tue
night ranging from 15-20 in the N to the low to mid 20s in the
S.

On Thu the sfc high shifts to the E, but extends back toward the
W over the CWA, as we get a bit of a ridging aloft. This should
keep much of the CWA dry through the day. We start to gets some
mid and high clouds moving in from the SW during the afternoon,
and maybe see a few showers try to work into W NH mid to late
afternoon, but this is a low probability. It looks mostly dry on
Friday, with the western most likely to see a shower, but the
ridging holds as the closed low deepens to the SW. Next weekend
is still very much a low confidence forecast, although the Euro
is going for a rainy Saturday, with maybe a dry Sunday, but it
will all depend on the closed 500 MB low.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this morning will become MVFR to IFR by late
morning or early afternoon over southern TAF sites while VFR
lingers through most of the day over eastern sites. -RASN is
likely for KLEB, KMHT,KCON, KPSM, and PWM through around 16Z
today before becoming more showery and isolated in nature.
Another round of -RA and -SN is then likely late tonight through
part of Tuesday, especially at ME TAF sites. Southeasterly winds
of 5-15 kts can be expected today before becoming westerly and
strengthening to 20-30 kts on Tuesday. No LLWS is currently
forecasted.

Long Term...By Wed and through Fri , expect VFR, and light
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A weak wave will cross south of the waters today
and tonight with southeasterly winds remaining below 25 kts and
seas of 1-3 ft. Westerly gales are then possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening with gusts up to 40 kts and seas of 4-7
ft. Across the bays, gusts up to 30 kts and seas of 1-3 ft can
be expected.

Long Term...Winds will diminish on Wed and stay below SCA
criteria through the end of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
     for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Cempa/Ekster
AVIATION...
MARINE...